Assocham ( Associated chamber of Commerce ) organised an event today at their Hqrs in New Delhi to launch this new initiative. The presentation by the representative of Goldman Sachs on the BRICs( Brazil, Russia , India and China) was music to our ears. India would become the third largest economy of the world by 2030 and overtake that of USA by 2040. There were presentations by the embassies of Brazil, Russia and China. Mr Shashank, former Foreign Secretary, the mover behind this new alliance and past president of Assocham Mr Anil Agarwal spoke.
In my talk about Brazil I said
- History and God have been kind to Brazil. In the last 180 yrs of history, India was under colonial rule until 1947 and Russia and China had undergone historic and sytemic changes but Brazil had an undisturbed continuity since its independence in 1825. Unlike the RIC countries, Brazil has not been in any war or seen bloodshed in the last 130 years.. Despite borders with 10 countries, Brazil has not inherited any border disputes.
- God has blessed Brazil with large fertile tracts of land, water and natural and mineral resources and a pleasant climate.
- Brazil has one religion and one language and no probelms of diversity
On the above historical and god-given heritage, Brazilians have now built " man- made fundamentals" which have postioned Brasil for a sustained longterm growth. These are
- irreversible instituitionalisation of democracy and stable, mature and pragmatic polity. In the absence of extremist parties and in the context of inevitable coalition governments in the future,there will be consensual and moderate policies without any radical turns.
- They have decisively overcome the triple curses of inflation, exchange rate- currency and external debt. Macroeconomic fundamentals and the new mindset are healthy and sound.
- Brazil is emerging as an agricultural superpower and can add another 100 million hectares of land besides the 40 million hectares currently being cultivated.
- Brazil is globally leveraging its domestic success of fuel ethanol proramme and has the potential to become a "saudi arabia of ethanol" in the coming years.
- Brazil has become a regional leader of south america through regional integration and a platform for business in the region.
I bet my money on Goldman Sachs report on Brazil and the BRICs.