Thursday, December 17, 2009

Latin America will grow by 4.3 % in 2010

This good news comes from ECLAC ( Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean- which is part of the United Nations) in their 10 December 2009 report.

The GDP of the region which fell by 1.8% in 2009 due to the global crisis will resume growth in 2010 with 4.3 %. The region had an annual average growth of 4.8% in the period 2003-2008. In this period, the region enjoyed a current account surplus as well as primary surplus, accumulated foreign exchange reserves, reduced external debts, booming exports and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. This is the strength which helped the region to withstand the global crisis in 2008-9 with only moderate adverse impact and bounce back in 2010.

The 4.3% growth of Latin America in 2010 is higher than the growth projected for developing countries ( 4%) except China and India.

Brazil will be the 2010 champion of the region with the highest growth of 6%. Ooops... I do not recall Brazil topping the growth chart of the region in recent times. Uruguay and Peru will be runners-up with 5% each.
Mexico, the second largest economy which suffered the worst GDP contraction of the region in 2009 with 6.7% will grow by 3.5%. Argentina, the third largest market will grow by 4%.
It is no surprise that the least growth in 2010 in the region will be in Honduras, which is in a political crisis.
While South America is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2010, the Caribbean and Central America are projected to grow by around 2%.
Inflation in the region in 2009 is estimated to have declined to 4.5% from 8.3% in 2008.

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