Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Latin America faces GDP contraction in 2015

Latin America is projected suffer a negative growth of –0.3% in 2015 and resume marginal growth of 0.7% in 2016, according to the 5 October 2015 estimates of ECLAC, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean.
Among the main factors behind the growth drop are a weak internal demand; a global environment marked by a low growth of the developed world; an important deceleration in emerging economies, especially China; the strengthening of the dollar and a growing volatility in financial markets; and an important fall in primary goods prices
South America is expected to contract by –1.6% while Mexico and Central America would grow by 2.6%.
Brazil's GDP is projected to contract by 2.8% and that of Venezuela by 6.7%. Both the countries are likely to continue the negative growth in 2016 too with Brazil shrinking by –1% and Venezuela by –7%.
Mexico's growth projection for 2015 is 2.2%, Argentina's 1.6%,Colombia's 2.9%, Peru 2.7% and Chile 2.1%.
Panama will have the highest growth at 5.8%, followed by Dominican Republic at 5.6% and Bolivia at 4.4%
The Indian business need not be discouraged by this lower growth. There are many overall macroeconomic indicators of the region which are positive. The economies of the region have developed resilience and have the capacity to accelerate growth in the coming years. India's trade with the region continues on its trajectory of growth. It can reach 100 billion dollars by 2020 from the 43 billion in 2014-15. The good news is that the Latin Americans have started paying more attention to India after the slow down of the Chinese market.

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