Monday, July 21, 2008

Peru gets investment grade rating

Peru's foreign currency debt rating was lifted to investment grade by Standard & Poor's on 14 july. The agency, which raised the ratings to BBB- from BB+, cited the significant decline in Peru´s fiscal and external vulnerabilities as reasons for the upgrade. The move by S&P follows Fitch Ratings upgrade in March of Peru's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to investment grade.

Peru's low level of inflation and strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals are trends that S&P expects "will remain in place over the medium term despite an increasingly riskier international environment and the continuation of challenging local politics." The upgrade is supported by the significant decline in Peru's fiscal and external vulnerabilities,'' S&P' said in a statement. ``Economic growth has diversified over the last three years evolving from a path mostly driven by external demand into a more complex structure with more reliance on dynamic domestic demand.''

Strong domestic demand and exports of minerals have helped push the Andean country's economy up 9% in 2007. The economy has grown at an average rate of 5% over the last five year and is expected to grow at 8% in 2008.

Peru this year could pay ahead of schedule $1.1 billion to the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, the government has said. The nation plans to reduce its foreign debt to the equivalent of 13 percent of gross domestic product this year, from 18.4 percent at the end of 2007.

Meanwhile, inflation is running at 5.7% so far this year, above the central bank's inflation target of 1% to 3%. The central bank in July raised its benchmark interest rate to 6% in a bid to slow the impact of rising prices for commodities.

Peru is the fourth country in Latin America to receive investment grade. Chile was the first country to get investment grade in 1992, followed by Mexico in 2000 and Brazil in May 2008. Colombia is the likely next candidate for this status.

A common denominator of policymakers in the four countries was a sustained effort to diversify their national debt structure and convert a greater portion of it into national currencies as opposed to U.S. dollars. According to a study by the IDB Research Department, the foreign currency composition of the public debt of the seven largest economies of Latin America fell from 65 percent in 1998 to 38 percent in 2007. More than 80 percent of Mexico’s debt is in local currency.In Brazil, local currency accounted for about 92 percent of the country’s sovereign debt in 2008 compared with 60 percent in 2000.Peru’s debt composition moved from 6.3 percent in local currency in 2000 to more than 36 percent in 2008.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

India´s first Latin America Equity Fund

Here is the news from today´s Business Standard of India

ING Investment Management India has launched India's first Latin America Equity Fund, an open ended Fund of Funds (FoF) Scheme for Indian investors.

The Scheme opens on June 19, 2008 and closes on July 10, 2008. The scheme will primarily invest in ING's existing Luxembourg domiciled fund thereby seeking to provide an Indian investor long-term capital appreciation and exposure to countries which are amongst the fastest growing economies in the emerging market space. The Lux fund will try and achieve this by investing primarily in stocks of companies based out of Latin American countries or stocks of companies deriving a majority of their revenues from Latin American economies.

Vineet K Vohra, managing director and CEO, ING Investment Management India said, "The emerging markets as a whole have held up fairly well considering that they are generally volatile than the US indices.
All emerging countries have some political risk associated with them, some much higher than others. However, what makes Latin America so attractive is the stable government in place in the recent years and their pro-growth policies. This is one part of the backdrop that isn't always visible to investors, but it plays an important role in medium & long term stability."
Latin America is a lucrative market on account of infrastructure investments, robust domestic demand, strong private consumption & surging commodity exports due to increasing demand from countries like India and China. Valuations for most of the Latin American economies look attractive as compared to their counterparts in the emerging markets.

This adds an additional dimension to India´s business outreach to Latin America reflecting Indian confidence and optimism on the prospects of the region.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

UNASUR - Union of South American Nations

On 23 May, Presidents of the 12 countries of South America signed the Treaty under which formation of this regional group was formalised in the third south american summit held in Brasilia. The initiative for UNASUR was taken in 2004 with the Cuzco Declaration on 8 December 2004.

This is a fascinating and formidable alliance of all the 12 countries of south america, uniting the 5-member Mercosur with the 4-member Andean Community plus Chile, Guyana and Suriname. The secretariat of UNASUR will be located in Quito, its parliament in Cochabamba and its South Bank in Caracas. The presidents will meet once a year and the foreign ministers of the group will meet once in six months. The Union will have its own flag.

UNASUR aspires to become a Single Market, beginning with the elimination of tariffs for non-sensitive products by 2014 and sensitive products by 2019. UNASUR members have already allowed visa-free movement of their citizens between their countries. They have already taken up projects for the integration of infrastructure( roads, ports, communications etc) and energy. There is also a proposal to form a Defence Council. A common currency and passport are also part of the UNASUR dream whose role model is European Union.

Critics and those whose interests are affected by the regional grouping predict failure of this Union and highlight the political problems and conflicts between the member states and the immaturity of some of the political leaders. Some observers quote the failures of such attempts in the past and dismiss this as yet another doomed venture Latin Americans to integrate.

I believe that UNASUR is going to stay and flourish. The conditions of the market and the mindset for integration are ripe and favourable at this time than ever in the past. Nine out of the 12 countries have been part of the two main integrated groups namely Mercosur and Andean Community. Despite the imperfection of these two Groups, they have been successful in many ways. The governments, business and the people of these two groups have realised the values and advantages of integration. The trade between the UNASUR members have become a significant and growing portion of their external trade. Cross-border investment and collaborations of the business of these countries are already flourishing. More importantly, their dependence on their traditional markets namely USA and EU have come down and UNASUR countries have successfully diversified their exports and foreign trade. For example, Argentina´s trade with Mercosur is more than the combined total of their trade with EU and USA.

UNASUR has a total population of 382 million and GDP of 2,3 trillion dollars. It is an Agricultural Power and a supplier of conventional and biofuels to the world. All the countries of UNASUR are democracies with sustained economic growth and have become less vulnerable to external shocks. All these have given a new confidence and optimism and the leaders of these countries have realised the value of collective strength. It is not ideology or dreams which are behind the current integration process, as it was before the eighties. ....No more Magical Realism... It is sheer realism, pragmatism and the experience of the failures of the past which are the guiding forces of the current integration.

It is noteworthy that Brazil,the biggest power of the region is the one which is pushing seriously for UNASUR integration. And equally to be noted... Argentina, the second biggest power of the region is also betting on the same goal. Imagine a combined football team of Brazil and Argentina !

The world should take note of what President Lula said at the Brasilia summit on 23 may, "A united South America will rearrange the pieces on the board of power in the world."

Bravo..... UNASUR !!!

Friday, May 09, 2008

Latin America receives record FDI in 2007

According to a report released on 8 May by the UN body ECLAC, based in Santiago FDI received by Latin America and Caribbean in 2007 was a record 106 billion dollars surpassing the previous record of 89 billion in 1999.

Highlights of the report
- FDI increased from 72.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 106 billion in 2007. This 46% increase is the highest among various regions.
- natural resources were the main area of investment in south america except in brazil where services received most investment. manufacturing was the main investment area in mexico.
-The main FDI recipient country in 2007 was Brazil, with US$34.6 billion, followed by Mexico (US$23.2 billion), Chile (US$14.5 billion) and Colombia (US$9 billion, Argentina- 5.7 billion, Peru-5.3 billion
- Brazil has come back to claim its top position after having been overtaken by mexico in recent years.
- Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Panama and El Salvador received between 1.5 and 1.8 billion dollars each in 2007.
- South America received 71 billion dollars while the rest went to Mexico, central america and caribbean.
-The main foreign investors in 2007 were the United States, the Netherlands and Spain

-Outward investment flows from Latin America and the Caribbean to other regions in 2007 fell to US$20.6 billion, after reaching a maximum high of over US$42 billion in 2006. Brazil invested abroad 7 billion dollars followed by Mexico- 5.5 billion, Chile-3.8 billion and Argentina 1.1 billion.

The record FDI is a sign of the confidence of the foreign investors in the stability and growth prospects of the region.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Brazil upgraded to Investment Grade

Last week, Brazil was upgraded to Investment Grade ( triple B minus ) by Standard and Poor. This is a reaffirmation of the health and soundness of the Brazilian market which has got its fundamentals right. International economic experts have concluded that Brazil has finally come out of its boom and bust cycle. Brazil is the third country after Chile and Mexico to get investment grading.

Last year the growth was 5.4 % and in 2008 it is expected to be around 4.8 %. Inflation has fallen. Primary budget of the government has been in surplus. Exports are booming thanks to the high demand and price for its agroproducts and minerals. Brasil´s stock market Bovespa has risen by 14 percent this year, while the stock markets around the world are getting beaten.

Foreign direct investment in 2007 was 34 billion dollars. At the same time Brazilian companies have been on an acquisition spree of land, assets, mines, factories and business in the region and outside. CVRD bought a Canadian co for about 15 bilion dollars, the largest acquisition by any Latin American company.´

Brazil is already an agricultural power with its large fertile land and high exportable surplus. It can bring in more land under cultivation without affecting the Amazon.

The recent discovery of large new oilfields has put Brazil in the same league as the OPEC members. Brazil is already the world leader in fuel ethanol.

Brazil´s agricultural strength combined with its energy surplus has given it an edge in these days and coming years of global concern with the rising prices and demand for fuels and food.

What is remarkable is the change in the mindset of Brazilian business and political leaders. They are putting their act together to make the country as a global leader. President Lula has announced support for the Brazilian companies to become multinationals. He wants to create a large Brazilian giant in pharma sector through merger of some existing companies. Brazilian government and business are reaching out to Africa, middleeast and Asia.

Politically, Brazil has set an example in the region for achievement of equilibrium between pro-poor and pro-business policies, pleasing the Wall Street and Favelas with equal earnestness. This is important since progress of some countries in the region have been hampered by domestic ideological conflicts and divide between government and private sector.

Even my Argentine business friends have expressed admiration for the new energy, vision, ambition and aggressiveness which drive the Brazilian business.

What is even more remarkable is that despite the growing strength on its own , Brazil is strongly commmited to regional integration through Mercosur and Unasur. The Brazilian leadership takes their Mercosur partners into confidence while strategising their future. They leverage the collective strength of the region to reinforce their own.

Viva Brazil !!!

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Latin American economies continue their sixth consecutive year of growth in 2008

There used to be a saying " when USA catches cold, Latin America sneezes". The region had been susceptible to external shocks and had suffered in the past. The last time the economies of the region went into a tailspin were following the Asian and Russian crises. With the subprime crisis and the looming recession in USA, the latino economies should have normally gone into crisis situations. But they have withstood the external crisis thanks to the new paradigm of economic stability and growth. The economies have become resilient with stronger macroeconomic fundamentals. The policymakers have learnt their lessons and are now more careful, clever and disciplined. Of course, Lady Luck has rewarded the latin americans for their good behaviour with high demand and price for their primary commodity exports.

According to a report ( 23 April) of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Latin America and the Caribbean will grow an average of 4.7% in 2008, 0.2% lower than the 4.9% estimate issued by them in December 2007.

ECLAC projects that the countries with the highest growth rates this year will be Panama (8%) and Argentina, Cuba and Peru (7%). Mexico and Ecuador will have the lowest growth, with 2.7% and 3%, respectively.
The countries with growth rates nearing the regional average will be Bolivia and Paraguay (5%), Brazil (4.8%), and Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Honduras (4.5%).

South America is projected to grow by 5.7% while mexico and central america is expected to grow by 3.1%.

Last year, average Gross Domestic Product growth in Latin America and the Caribbean reached 5.7%.

The region is into its sixth consecutive year of growth in 2008, with annual growth of over 4% since 2003. Besides growth, the other fundamentals are also healthy. Inflation is in single digit, exchange rates are stable and predictable, external debt manageable and industry, business, agriculture and consumption are showing significant growth.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Latin America's trade with India and China in 2007

India’s trade with Latin America in 2007 crossed 11 billion dollars, increasing from 9 billion dollars in 2006.

India's exports were 5 billion dollars and imports 6 billion dollars. The total should have crossed 12 billion dollars, if we take into account the trade through third countries and add the figures in respect of smaller countries for which statistics for 2007 is not available yet.

Brazil was the main destination of exports... exceeded two billion dollars. Second top destination was mexico with 1127 billion dollars( jan-november). Colombia has over taken Argentina as the third largest market for India's exports in 2006 and in 2007.

Chile was the top exporter to India with 2.2 billion dollars. It has overtaken Brazil in the last two years. Argentina exported one billion dollars, maintaining its second position.

Chemicals and pharmaceuticals were the top exports of India followed by Engg products.

Reliance was the top trading company with Latin America with their crude oil imports from venezuela, mexico, Brazil and ecuador and export of diesel to brazil ( about 800 million dollars).

Copper accounted for 90 percent of Chile's exports to India. Vegetable oils formed 80 percent of Argentine exports to India.

China's trade with Latin America reached 102.6 billion dollars in 2007

It was just 12.6 billion dollars in 2000, increased to 26 billion in 2003 and to 70 billion dollars in 2006.
Trade with Brazil was 29.7 billion dollars, Mexico-14.9 billion dollars, Chile- 14.6 billion and Argentina-9.9 billion.
Main destination of exports: Mexico- 11.7 billion, Brazil-11.4 billion, Panama-5.6 billion, Chile-4.4 billion and Argenina- 3.6 billion
Major sources of imports: Brazil-18.3 billion dollars, Chile-10.3 billion, Argentina-6.3 billion, Peru.4.3 billion, Mexico-3.2 billion and Venezuela- 3 billion dollars.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Argentine TechTango with Indian IT

Antonia Pena, Francisco Okecki and Jose Ugarte, the Argentine trio of Techpreneurs who met me today represent the new breed of young, ambitious and global-visioned Argentines, who have started Tech Tango with Indian IT.

The reason for our meeting today is their India connection. They have become part of the Indian IT company Cellent ( www.cellent.com ) which specialises in software for mobile phones, a growth area in technology and business. This combination of mobiles and India is a formidable one.. In december 2007, the number of new mobile subscriptions was 8 million...highest growth in the world..It has been averaging over six million per month.

The techpreneur trio have independent experience in technology and IT business and their last company was called as " Net people", before its absorption by the Indian company. They are going to contribute not only to the Argentine and Latin American business of Cellent but also to development of new technologies including in collaboration with Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai. They have a team of six people but have plans to expand including in Uruguay. The Trio figure prominently in the" team of cellent" -http://www.cellent.com/Content/Lang/en/Section/5/SP/About_US_Team/2007/03.htm

The trio were in Mumbai recently and have come back inspired and enriched after their exposure to the new Indian technology development and work culture. They say they found it easier to interact, collaborate and connect with Indian mind and heart. Their eyes shine when they talk about India and IT.

The Trio impressed me with their drive, energy and enthusiasm. They reconfirm my optimism about the future of Argentina. They reminded me of the thousands of the new generation of young Indians with a new mindset, who have transformed India and raised its global profile.

Cellent is the fifth Indian IT company to establish operations in Argentina after TCS, First Source, Crisil/Irevna and Cognizant. These companies employ 700 young Argentines connecting them to the global growth story of Indian IT. It is a win-win for both.

Damas y Cabelleros... welcome to the new show of
TechTango between the new India and the new Argentina.

Friday, December 14, 2007

CII delegation in Buenos Aires 13 December 2007

A delegation of the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) was in Buenos Aires on 13 December. An India- Argentina Business Meet was organised at the Indian restaurant Katmandu from1230 to 1800 hrs. It was attended by about 70 Argentine businessmen. The speakers at the Meet included Mr Stancanelli, Director general of Foreign office, Osvaldo Rial, President of the Industrial Union of Buenos Aires province, Jorge Zorreguieta President of the Food Industries association and Neville mevawala, leader of the CII delegation.

In my welcome speech in Spanish, I highlighted
-the short term ( 3 year) goal to take bilateral trade from 1.2 billion to 3 billion dollars and Indian investment from 800 million to 2 billion dollars.
-long term goal to build partnership in which India ( with its large and growing market ) could contribute to Argentine exports, growth and prosperity while Argentina could contribute to India's food and energy security.




In the morning, the delegation visited the Industrial Union of Buenos Aires province and had meetings with their members. This Association is planning to take a delegation to India in the first half of 2008.


The delegation had a meeting with the Governor of Buenos Aires Province Mr Daniel Scioli, who spoke in English about the opportunities for business with his province.
The CII delegation was impressed with the enthusiastic response of the Argentine business and government and the business opportunities. They plan to organise the next Indo- Latin American Business Conclave in Argentina in the second quarter of 2008.

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Business with Uruguay

During my trip to Uruguay last week, I had a meeting with the uruguay-India chamber of Commerce in Montevideo. The Chamber is vibrant and has an elegant office and the members of the chamber are enthusiastic about business with India. India's exports in the first ten months of 2007 were 39 million dollars and imports 7 million dollars. There is scope to increase the trade to 100 million dollars in the next 3-4 years.
TCS, Mahindra and Mahindra and Biotech international have operations in Montevideo. Our Honorary Consul Daniel Bajuk has an agency selling Bajaj and Hero motorcycles.Indian vegetable oil producers' consortium is seriously looking into the possibility of investment in agribusiness including soya farming in uruguay.
Martin de Castro, the Montevideo-based Commercial officer of our embassy is dynamic, knowledgeable and is commited to assisting indian business. his contact decastromartin@gmail.com


meeting with the Chamber


I visited the bonded warehouse of Grupo Ras in Montevideo Port, where the Central Warehousing Corporation of India has rented 2000 sq metres for use by Indian exporters. The bonded ware house of Grupo Ras has 40,000 sq metres of modern space and moves 100 containers a week. They have offices in other South American countries. Ruben Azar, the young, energetic and dynamic owner of this company with turnover of 40 million dollars has been biten by the India bug. He has been to india several times and sees great potential for business with India. His facility has been used by Reliance, Aurobindo and other Indian companies. Grupo Ras is not only offering warehousing facility but also marketing of indian products in the region. More info www.gruporas.com




here is a picture of the bonded warehouse





below is the CWC space and Ruben Azar



I attended the inaguration of the new building of TCS at Zona Americas in Montevideo. The inaguration of this 4 million dollar building was done by the Uruguyan vice president. The new building will house 250 professionals out of the 800 being employed by TCS in Uruguay. They have plans to increase staff. TCS has also set up a regional IT training centre in Montevideo for candidates from all over Latin America. the credit for success of TCS in latin America goes to Gabriel Rozman.

This is the new building of TCS.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Indian BPO firms see growth in Latin Americanoperations

here is the story from Times of India of 19 November

After making a splash in US, European and Japanese markets, Indian ITeS companies are now ready to do Samba in Latin America.

The past two years have seen many of them set up shop in countries like Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Mexico. From TCS to Satyam, Evalueserve to 24/7, Indian companies have now opened development centres or acquired companies all across Latin America.

And what's driving them is the fact that the continent is one of the fastest-growing region for contact centres. Experts say, expansion to Latin America is a logical step for Indian companies looking to globalise their operations. Two main reasons are driving the growth, says Ameet Nivsarkar, V-P, Nasscom. "It helps Indian ITeS companies to service the larger Spanish speaking population in the US. They find it easier to attract Spanish speaking talent in Latin America compared to India. Also, even though Latin America does not have the depth of talent like India, it has sufficient expertise to complement the India story."

In fact, research done by ValueNotes reveals, the number of call centre agents working for outsourcers in Mexico will grow to 85,000 by 2010, and in Brazil it will increase to 12,000 in the same period. Already, Indian companies working there are scaling up operations. Evalueserve's Chilean delivery centre which started with approximately 15 employees, is expected to employ a few hundreds in the next two to three years. Subsequently, they will add around 60 professionals every year. The company believes the country could represent 10% of global revenues by 2008, and also add business for the India and China operations, said Robert Daigle, V-P at Evalueserve.

Nearness to US is a major attraction for Indians. "For us Chilean centre helps in dealing with workload for it is in the same time zone. Besides, Chile is a part of the global delivery platform for our clients," says Ashish Gupta, COO, Evalueserve. While costs (especially salary costs) in the region are higher compared to India, they are still lower than those in the US. Besides, bandwidth costs in Latin America are lower than in even India because of its proximity to the US. "Although the market may not be as big as the US or Europe, it's still big enough to keep Indian companies engaged," says Nivsarkar. Also, lower valuations of Latin American companies make the entry of Indian vendors relatively easier. Since economies there are 'yet to arrive,' it creates good acquisition opportunities for cash-rich Indian vendors.

Sunday, November 18, 2007

OECD report on Latn America - 7 November 2007

This is the first time OECD has brought out a report "Latin American Economic Outlook". From now on, they plan to bring out an annual report. Mexico is a member of OECD since 1994 and Chile is in the process of joining.

Highlights of the report:
- Latin America is showing the world a face with new attractive features: more stability in its macroeconomic fundamentals and greater pragmatism in policy and instituitional reform.
-Consistently positive growth rates and democratic stability are now the norms in the region, rather than the exception. Pragmatism has replaced as the guide for governments for sustained economic development instead of dogma.
- Latin America leads the developing world in pension reforms. Of course, Chile was the pioneer and role model for the reforms in the region.

What struck me in the report ( in the introduction itself) is the new link between China-India and Latin America. In fact, they have one separate chapter with the title " Latin America's Asian opportunity." They have concluded that the two Asian giants represent trade opportunities rather than competition for majority of the Latin American countries. Secondly, they show India-China as examples to follow by the Latin Americans in terms of growth, innovation and global competitivity.

It has now become a standard feature of any report on latin america to talk about the linkage to India and and China.

The report has the views of Javier Santiso, the chief development economist of OECD,who wrote the book "The political economy of the emerging markets". I agree with his analysis and optimism. My blog review of his book:

http://latinamericanaffairs.blogspot.com/search?q=the+political+economy+of+the+possible )