India- Latin America Trade in 2013

 India’s trade with the top ten trade partners of Latin America in 2013 was roughly $40 billion. Venezuela tops the list, followed by Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. Trade with most countries declined or stagnated in 2013, except for the significant increase (67%) in the case of Colombia. It is interesting to see that Colombia and Chile have overtaken Argentina, which used to be India’s third largest partner and is the region’s third largest economy.

  India’s trade with top ten trade partners of Latin America in 2013 and 2012 

	2013 (in US$ billions)	2012 (in US$ billions)
Venezuela	14 ( estimate)	14.3
Brazil	9.48	10.62
Mexico	6.67	6.29
Colombia	4.18	2.49
Chile	2.8	3.21
Argentina	1.7	1.84
Peru	1.3	1.13
Ecuador	0.546	0.536
Costa Rica	0.133	0.122
Paraguay	0.131	0.110
Total	41.09	41.04

Top ten destinations for India’s exports in 2013 and 2012 in billions of dollars

	2013 (in US$ billions)	2012 (in US$ billions)
Brazil	6.35	5
Mexico	2.86	2.95
Colombia	1.19	1.12
Peru	0.723	0.742
Argentina	0.695	0.573
Chile	0.692	0.658
Ecuador	0.516	0.443
Venezuela	0.251	0.301
Uruguay	0.111	0.145
Paraguay	0.109	0.095
Total	13.49	12.01

Brazil remained the top destination of India’s exports, followed by Mexico and Colombia. It is notable that Ecuador has overtaken Venezuela while Colombia and Peru have overtaken Argentina as more important destinations for India’s exports. Diesel,chemicals, vehicles, pharmaceuticals and textiles were the major items of export to Latin America. Diesel continued to be the main export (mostly to Brazil) amounting to $3.3 billion in 2013. 

Top ten Latin American sources of India's imports

	2013 (in US$ billions)	2012 (in US$ billions)
Venezuela	14 ( estimate)	14.1
Brazil	3.13	5.57
Mexico	3.52	3.81
Colombia	2.99	1.36
Chile	2.18	2.63
Argentina	1.1	1.26
Peru	0.586	0.386
Costa Rica	0.032	0.032
Ecuador	0.030	0.093
Paraguay	0.022	0.015
Total	27.6	29.03

As in recent years, Crude oil was the largest import from the region, with imports of $14 billion from Venezuela, $3 billion from Mexico, $2.8 billion from Colombia and $1.58 billion from Brazil. Latin American crude exporters are keen to increase exports to India in view of their declining exports to the U.S. – which is reducing imports thanks to an increase in domestic production after the shale gas and tight oil revolutions. The other big import items are copper, mostly ( 1.91 billion dollars) from Chile, and edible oil (soya and sunflower oil) mostly from Argentina for over a billion dollars.

Complementarity between the Republic of Soya and the Republic of Yoga

Argentina is the principal supplier of soya oil to India and will continue to be so in the future with its credential as the largest exporter of soya oil in the world. Soya is the main crop of Argentina accounting for fifty percent of its agricultural land. The country has world class facilities for soya processing, logistics and exports. Given its dependence on soya production and exports, Argentina can be called as a "Soya Republic".*

India feeds the soul of Argentines with yoga, meditation, philosophy of the "Art of Living" and faith in Sai Baba, Hare Krishna and other spiritual movements. There are several thousands of Argentines who are followers of Indian spiritual groups. An Argentine band " So what " has taken Indian spiritualism to a new level by combining it with popular music and taking it to even night clubs. They sing in Sanskrit but in the style of pop, rock, hip-hop and other trendy music genres. In between songs, they make the audience to do yoga and meditation exercises. During their performance, the night clubs serve only vegetarian food and do not allow alcohol, smoking or drugs. More on this http://latinamericanaffairs.blogspot.in/2012/05/argentine-pop-stars-sing-sanskrit.html#links

India is, therefore, expected to continue to increase imports of edible oil and pulses in the future. Argentina can be counted as a regular long term supplier. Argentina has the potential to increase the land under agriculture and has abundant water reserves. It is a global leader in innovation, research and best practices in agribusiness such as  Direct seeding ( no-till cultivation), silo bags for storage and Agriculture Process Outsourcing (APO). Argentina is the global pioneer in APO, an asset- light business model in which land is leased and all agricultural operations and equipments are outsourced ( More on APO http://businesswithlatinamerica.blogspot.in/2010/07/agriculture-process-outsourcing-by.html#links.  With these advantages, Argentina can increase production and exports to India besides its global exports. 

I call this give and take between Argentina and India as the complementarity between the Republic of Soya and the Republic of Yoga and in Spanish, "Cumplementaridad Alimentaria entre Republica de Soja y Republica de Yoga".

Argentina's exports of soya oil to India ranges between one and two billion dollars annually. Argentina also supplies India sunflower oil and pulses in small quantities. India is likely to increase the imports of these three items as well as source some more agroproducts from Argentina in future.

India's total imports of edible oil have increased from 1 million tons in 1992 to 4 million tons in 2002 and to 10 m tons in 2012. At this rate, India's imports could cross 20 million tons by 2030. Of the 10 million tons imported in 2012, palm oil accounted for 8 m tons while soya and sunflower oils were one million tons each. Palm oil is generally cheaper in comparison to the other two. But when the prices of soya and sunflower oil become competitive, their imports increase.

Argentina is the largest exporter of soy and sunflower oil in the world and has the potential to increase production and exports. India is the largest importer of edible oils in the world accounting for 14% of global trade.

India's consumption of edible oil has been steadily increasing from 6 m tons in 1992 to 10 m tons in 2002 and 17 mt in 2012. Consumption will continue to increase inevitably due to the growing population and economy as well as the middle class. The per capita consumption of edible oil is expected to increase from 14.3 kg to 20 kg by 2020. The global average of per capita consumption is 21 kg and the Chinese consumption is  22 kg..

India's domestic production of edible oil is not able to cope with the growth in consumption. India's production was 5 mt in 1992, 6 mt in 2002 and 7 mt in 2012. 

India is the largest importer of pulses in the world accounting for 50% of the global trade. In 2012, India's imports were 3.7 million tons and these are expected to increase in the coming decades. Bulk of the imports come from Canada, Australia and Myanmar. Argentina has started exporting small quantities in recent years and is keen to become a major supplier to India. India's domestic production of pulses has been stagnant for many decades and is unable to match the high rate of growth of demand.

There are no bright prospects for achieving significant growth in production of oil seeds and pulses by increasing the area of cultivation, since there is constraint of agricultural land. The agricultural area in India is decreasing due to the non-stop and rapid urbanization process. The Indian agriculture which is subject to the vagaries of monsoon, is also facing water crisis since water table is going down in states like Punjab where ground water is pumped indiscriminately for irrigation. 

The Government of India has been successful in reaching self sufficiency in the production of cereals. However, despite special programmes to increase production of oil seeds and pulses, there has been no satisfactory progress. The yield of oil seeds and pulses remain low. While Argentina produces 3 tons of soy per hectare, the yield of soy in India is just 1.1 ton per hectare. The Indian farmers with small holdings of land are not able to invest in innovation and productivity. 

Apart from imports, there is also scope for Indian companies to take stakes in Argentine agribusiness companies or form joint ventures and get direct access to production in Argentina and cut the transaction cost of traders. Some Argentine companies are equally keen for this arrangement since they also benefit from Indian capital and direct link to the market.  

Indian companies which have acquired agricultural land in African countries such as Ethiopia have not succeeded in their ventures since they do not have expertise and experience in large scale farming of thousands of hectares. The Argentine agribusiness companies, with their expertise, would be ideal partners for the Indian agribusiness ventures in Africa. 

This article is based on my extempore speech in a conference organized on the subject" Argentina and Asia –by 2030 : Strategies in agribusiness for the developing world" by the University of Buenos Aires from 7 to 9 April 2014.  

Video of the speech

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3hnZ4olhlM#action=share

http://www.agrositio.com/videoconferencias/argasia2014/diferido.asp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuk_4pvJ6aM

Mexican multiplexes in Mangalore

Mangaloreans know very little about Mexico, on the other side of the world. But they know about a Mexican company, Cinepolis which has set up multiplexes in their town. Cinepolis has also set up multiplexes in other second tier cities such as Hubli, Amritsar, Pune, Ludhiana, Patna, Jaipur, Surat, Ahmedabad and Bhopal besides Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Gurgaon and Mumbai.

Cinepolis has emerged as one of the top four players and the only foreign company in the Indian multiplex market in the last six years. They have 84 screens and plan to add 60 more in 2014. Their target is 400 screens by 2017. With an average cost of 2.5 crores of rupees for setting up each screen, their total investment will be 1000 crores of rupees ( 150 million dollars). This would make Cinepolis as the second largest Latin American investor in India, after Gerdau of Brazil which has invested Rs 1820 crores. Cinepolis is introducing 4DX screen in their 14-screen multiplex in Thane. This will be the first in India to have 4DX technology, which gives the audience sensory experience such as mist, smoke and smell.

Cinepolis is the largest film exhibitor in Latin America and the fourth largest in the world with 3400 screens in eleven countries including USA. In their home market in Mexico they have 2700 screens.

Cinepolis is a pioneer in the concept of premium and luxury theaters. They are the largest operators of luxury theaters in the world.  Cinepolis operates only luxury cinemas in the US.

Cinepolis is one of the growing number of Mexican multinationals arriving at the global stage. Founded in 1947 by Enrique Ramirez Villlalon, the company has expanded aggressively after Alejandro Ramirez Magana, with MBA from Harvard, from the family took over as CEO in 1996. He introduced new technologies, innovation and professional management.  

Ramirez, during his visit to India in the first half of March, reconfirmed the long term commitment of his company to Indiawhich is among the world's top five countries in terms of cinema-goers. He was confident on the potential of the Indian market to give ten percent of the global revenue of Cinepolis. Ramirez loves Indian films and his favourites include " Lunch Box" and “ Three Idiots". 

The Indian operations of Cinepolis were started by Javier Sottomayer, who came to India in 2007. He has been living in Gurgaon and travelling around India searching for sites and talking to mall owners. He has developed a clear understanding of the traditional India, the modern mindset of the new Indian middle class, the complex regulatory system as well as the underworld of the property developers. He has learnt to adapt the Cinepolis business model to suit the Indian environment. He is upbeat about the prospects of the growth of the India and is betting on the new market of the younger generation of Indians. He attributes his Indian enlightenment to the book " Holy Cow; An Indian adventure" by Sarah Macdonald, an Australian. He sees many similarities between India and Mexico in the bureaucratic procedures, corruption and politics. He has learnt the Indian patience to deal with the long delays in the completion of the projects. As a Mexican, how does he find dealing with his Indian staff, numbering about a thousand? He says that the Indians are too respectful of the hierarchy. He is unable to get proper feedback from the people in the field since they do not feel comfortable in expressing their opinion freely to the boss.

picture- Javier on the left and Ramirez on the right in Indian dress

Cinepolis is one of the eight Mexican companies which have invested in India. Most of the Mexican investors are in auto parts business. One of the recent investments is establishment of a childrens' theme park " Kidzania" in Mumbai by a Mexican company in collaboration with Shah Rukh Khan. On the other hand, there are over thirty Indian companies which have invested in Mexico in sectors such as IT, pharma and auto parts.

Mexico has another filmy connection to India. Barbara Mori, a Mexican actress had acted in a Bollywood film " Kites" as the heroin with Hrithik Roshan. Their pictures below.

The Mexican film industry, which was the best in Latin America in the mid twentieth century, is in a renaissance boom these days. The film "No se acceptan devoluciones (Instructions not included- title in English version) " made record earnings of 87 million dollars, becoming the highest grossing Spanish language film in US. This follows the recent box-office hit of  " Nosotros los nobles". Mexican directors, actors and films have started winning global awards in recent times. Alfonso Cuaron, a Mexican won the Oscar award for best director in 2014 for the film " Gravity". Mexico is the fourth largest market of film-goers in the world. There is scope for exchange of films and soap operas between India and Mexico commercially. Both Indians and Mexicans have similar taste in food and films. They like them hot and spicy.

Argentine economic situation worsens

The Argentine currency peso devalued by 12.4 % in just one day on 23 January reaching 8 pesos to a dollar at the official exchange rate. The devaluation in the month of January alone was over 22% coming on top of a 32 % depreciation in 2013. The black market rate rose to 13 pesos a dollar. 

The traditionally large trade surplus shrank by 27% in 2013 to 9.24 billion dollars from 12.42 billion in 2013.  Imports had increased by 8 % to 74 billion while exports had gone up by just 3% to 83 billion.

The forex reserves of the central bank fell to a precarious level of 28 billion dollars in February 2013 from 52 billion in 2011.

The economy is continuing to suffer from the high inflation which stood at 28% in 2013 although the government's inflation figure was just 11%. The annual inflation has been above 20% since 2007 although the government has consistently manipulated the statistics showing inflation around 10% in the last seven years. But the government has been giving salary increase of over 20% to its employees and the private sector has also been forced to do the same over the last seven years to compensate for the high inflation.

The Argentine government has imposed a number of import and foreign exchange controls with non-transparent criteria in the last three years. The Argentine citizens and companies invent ingenious ways to circumvent the controls to buy dollars and for shopping and travel abroad. The import controls have hindered foreign trade including  the imports from Mercosur member countries. The government has accused some big companies of foreign exchange manipulation and is going after them.

The worsening Argentine economic situation has an adverse collateral impact on Uruguay which is expected to fare poorly since the Uruguayan economy is closely linked to Argentina's. Brazil is also concerned fearing negative impact on its own economy.

The worried Argentine government has been taking a more protectionist stand in the ongoing EU- Mercosur trade negotiations. The Brazilians have warned that they might be forced to leave Argentina and go ahead with the EU negotiations along with Uruguay, which is also keen on the trade treaty with EU.

Some economists and foreign commentators have predicted a repeat of the 2002 crisis. But the situation this time is not beyond control as in 2002 when Argentina declared the world's largest debt default of 90 billion dollars. The debt at this time is within the capacity for repayment. The government could bring the situation under control with proper policies and by giving more space for the private sector to grow by lessening the controls and restrictions.

But there are some signs of positive changes in the attitude of the government. They have finally admitted to high inflation and started showing real figures, under IMF pressure. They have also started talking to the Paris Club about settlement of their debt which should open up access to global financial markets. The government has announced on 24 January lifting of some of the restrictions on personal dollar purchases by its citizens.

According to the latest estimates of the US energy department, Argentina has the largest technically recoverable shale gas reserves at 802 tcu and the second largest shale oil reserves (27 billion barrels) in the Americas. The exploitation of the shale could be a game changer for Argentina as seen in the case of US. The Argentine industry will get a boost with the low-cost shale gas and  could emerge as a leading exporter of energy. The first shale investment took place in 2013 with the entry of Chevron and more investors are expected to follow. Argentina could also double its current production of 500,00 bpd of conventional crude with more investment. The oil and gas sector remains under invested. The recent decision of the Argentine government to compensate Repsol for the YPF nationalization has generated confidence among potential investors.

Despite the Argentine import controls, India's exports have increased in 2013 reaching 695 million dollars from 573 million in 2012. Imports from Argentina remained at the same level as in 2012 at 1.1 billion dollars. Soy oil was the main import accounting for 1 billion dollars. India has been importing between one and two billion dollars of soy oil from Argentina, the largest soy oil exporter in the world. India also imports sunflower oil from time to time. Argentina has the potential to grow and supply pulses to India which imports over three million tons annually from other countries. An Argentine company Los Grobo sent its first shipment to India in 2013. The company is looking for Indian partners to continue the business on a long term basis.

Performance of the Latin American economies in 2013

According to the provisional figures of the December 2013 report of ECLAC ( Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean) Latin America had a modest GDP growth of 2.6% in 2013. Brazil, the biggest economy, grew by 2.4% and Mexico, the second biggest by 1.3%. Paraguay had the highest growth (13%), followed by Panama (7.5%), Bolivia (6.4%) and Peru (5.2%). The economies of Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Haiti, Nicaragua and Uruguay grew at between 4% and 5%. Venezuela had the lowest growth of just 1.2%. The main driver of the growth of the region was domestic demand along with investment.

The GDP growth of the region in 2013 is less than the growth of 3.1% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2011. The decline in growth is mainly due to the adverse external environment. Before the 2008-9 global crisis, the region had an average growth of 5.1% from 2004 to 2008. At the height of the crisis the region contracted by 1.5% in 2009 but bounced back immediately with an impressive 5.9% in 2010.

The GDP growth rate of the region is projected to increase to 3.2% in 2014. Panama is expected to have the highest growth of 7% next year followed by Bolivia and Peru at 5.5% each. Brazil will grow by 2.6%, Mexico by 3.5%, Argentina by 2.6%, Chile by 4% and Colombia by 4.5%. Venezuela is condemned to have the lowest growth of just one percent in 2014.

Net FDI in Latin America in 2013 is estimated to have increased to 147 billion dollars from 126.3 billion in 2012. It has steadily increased from 47.9 billion in 2004.

International reserves of  Latin America stand at a comfortably high level of  817 billion dollars in 2013, marginally less from the 2012 figure of 819.9 billion but up from 219 billion in 2004. Only Argentina has an uncomfortable level of foreign exchange reserves of 30 billion dollars. The government of Argentina has imposed a number of foreign exchange, foreign travel and import restrictions because of the low forex reserves. Venezuela has also similar restrictions as part of the political philosophy of the Chavista regime to control everything and everyone in the country.

Average inflation of the region has gone up in 2013 to 7.1% from 5.6% in 2012 mainly due to rise in food prices. Venezuela had the highest inflation of 51.7% in the region, going beyond its 2007 record of 31.9% in this decade. Argentina had an official inflation of 10% but unofficial one of over 25% in 2013. All the other countries in the region had kept inflation down in single digit in 2013 as well as in recent years.

Latin America’s debt levels have continued to fall, with public ( central government) debt at around 31% of GDP in 2013 from 51% in 2004. Chile has the lowest of  just 12% in 2013 up from its recent record of  3.9% in 2007. The gross external debt of the region as a percentage of GDP in 2013 is 21 percent, down from 21.2% in 2012 and 34.6% in 2004. The gross external debt of Latin America in 2013 is 1.207 trillion dollars.

Latin America's exports have stagnated due to the fall in demand in China, Europe and US , the decline in prices of commodities exported by the region and the slower global growth in 2013. Exports to Europe have decreased by 5% while exports to Asia increased by 8%. Exports of goods of Latin America in 2013 are estimated to be 1.108 trillion dollars slightly up from 1.104 trillion in 2012. Imports in 2013 are 1.09 trillion, up from 1.053 trillion in 2012. Service exports have gone up from 128.9 billion in 2012 to 133.5 billion in 2013. Service imports have also increased from 204.8 billion in 2012 to 214.4 billion in 2013. 

Lending rates in 2013 continued to be high and in double digits in the case of many Latin American countries ranging from the highest in Brazil at 31.6% to the lowest in Mexico at  4.4%.

Unemployment in the region has declined to 6.3% in 2013 from 6.4% in 2012.

Venezuela and Argentina are the only black sheep in the region. They have ended the year in 2013 with worse economic situations than they were in 2012. Both the countries are paying a heavy price for poor governance and are the exceptions to the main trend of stability, predictability and prudent policies in the region.

Except for Venezuela and Argentina, the rest of the Latin American economies have stayed relatively stable and sound in 2013 despite the European crisis and the slow down in Asia and US. The region has steadily become more resilient and resistant to external shocks while strengthening the domestic macroeconomic fundamentals.