Wednesday, March 08, 2017

India's trade with Brazil has declined again.

India's trade with Brazil has gone down by 28 % reaching USD 5.6 billion in 2016 (January to December) from 7.90 billion in 2015 after reaching a peak of 11.4 billion in 2014. India' exports declined by 42% to USD 2.48 billion while imports went down by 12% to USD 3.16 billion from the previous year.

India's main exports were:  Agro chemicals for crop protection – 251 million, Diesel-169 m, polyester yarn- 151 m, chemicals-76 m and pharmaceuticals – 31 m
Major imports: raw sugar-884 m, crude oil-671 m, soya oil-378 m, copper sulphate-175 m, gold-88 m, copper products –88 m, pvc -70 m , ferro nickel– 40 m, iron ore-32 m.

In 2014, India's  export of diesel was 3.52 bn dollars and crude oil imports were 2.3 billion dollars from Brazil. These have come down drastically.

Brazilian global imports had decreased by 20 % to 138 billion and exports by 3% to 185 billion in 2016. The Brazilian recession of the last two years and the fall in commodity prices are the main reasons for the decline. 

But the good news is that the Brazilian economy is resuming growth in 2017 and the commodity prices are going up. The inflation has been contained in single digit and the external debt is under control. Foreign Direct Investment keeps pouring in, reflecting confidence of investors who take advantage of the lower cost of Brazilian assets. The political situation has become better and the government of President Temer is pro-business. These mean that the bilateral trade should grow in 2017. If the  ongoing ( for the last ten years ) negotiations to widen and deepen the PTA with Mercosur is concluded without further delay, it could boost the trade with Brazil, besides other Mercosur members. 

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